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food thermodynamics: place your bets

Question
How long will it take to thaw a 40 pound turkey in a small refrigerator that is set to 36-38F?

Additional data points

  • It is one of those dorm/hotel room sized refrigerators and the turkey occupies ~80% of it. We took out all the shelving and there is a little freezer section.
  • It is in my garage, which is warm, probably upper 70s, in the daytime and cools down to ~mid-60s at night.
  • It's been about 36 hours so far and I can press down on the breast maybe 1/2 inch before hitting stuff that is solidly frozen. Maybe. (Did I mention this sucker is HUGE?)

There's bragging rights, if not much else, at stake here. I'll post a guess later - I think we've got a few days to contemplate this question before it gets much closer to thawed.

Then I have to figure out what to do with it. Hmmm...

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